ChatGPT

ChatGPT, created by OpenAI, is an amazing tool that’s helpful in refining rote tasks, and will eventually become as commonplace as spellcheck tools. However, I believe that its success wave won’t continue exponentially, and here are the reasons why:

0. OpenAI will dilute over time

This is a basic law of nature with every technology company:

Early success is achieved.
The company grows in revenue, followed by hiring.
Hiring brings in more tech career people.
Those folks introduce practices that lower the overall quality of the product by doing things "the way they did it at their old job."

At some point, I imagine ChatGPT will reach an inflection point where these changes take the overall quality from “great” to “average.”

1. No other company will successfully replicate OpenAI

This is pretty simple. OpenAI’s success with ChatGPT has caused big tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta to drop everything in an attempt to clone it. The rush will cause them to overlook simple things like edge cases, polish, and safety. These are usually the first things thrown out the window in building a tech product MVP, but in this case, they are OpenAI’s differentiator. By saying “we can’t waste time on those details,” other big tech companies will hold themselves back.

3. The economy will force an acquisition

OpenAI will initially experience a revenue boom over the next few months. This will be due to companies wanting to replace workers with what they view as a more cost-efficient AI tool. OpenAI’s expenses will also grow, which will likely lead to higher costs for the tool.

As the economy becomes more uncertain, companies that adopted ChatGPT will be forced to re-evaluate the expense and attempt to quantify the impact, which is inherently difficult to do. This will lead to decreased revenue for OpenAI, but the success of ChatGPT will be fresh on everyone’s minds, leading to a likely acquisition from one of the big tech companies.

After that happens, the life and innovation will slowly be strangled out of the OpenAI team, as happens with nearly any tech acquisition.

Possible success case

If OpenAI is able to keep their innovation momentum and optimize their costs, it could lead to success for the company. It would be somewhat disruptive, but in the long-run, no more than any other big tech company. Eventually, it will be bogged down and too afraid of failure (i.e., disappointing the shareholders) and will settle into its particular niche in the tech economy. Conclusion

In summary, while we should embrace the innovation, we shouldn’t expect it to last forever.

This post was edited for spelling, grammar, and flow by ChatGPT.

• 2023 5
• 2022 4